The LoPucki-Doherty Bankruptcy Survival Calculator: Prediction

Select a Bankruptcy Research Database case from the list (Who’s on the list?), or enter any combination of these eleven variables and click on “Calculate.” Then the program will predict the likelihood that the debtor company will continue in business as a stand-alone company beyond the end of the bankruptcy case.

Select a case or enter data below
 
Optionally, select a judge to fill in that judge's current experience below
 
Example     Input       Click here to obtain input data for BRD cases
no    Select yes if the debtor publicly indicated an intent to sell the businesses, no if not.
4.1    Enter the prime rate of interest one year prior to filing.
neither   Select whether the case is prepackaged, prenegotiated, or neither.
-.08   Enter the ratio of the debtors equity to assets before bankruptcy.
no   Select yes if the debtor’s primary business is manufacturing, no if not.
21   Enter the miles from the debtor’s headquarters city to the local bankruptcy court city.
yes   Select yes if a creditors’ committee was appointed within 24 days of file, no if not.
no   Select yes if the debtor’s EBIT* was greater than zero, no if not.
 Enter the number of prior BRD cases in which the judge was the judge at confirmation.
845,653,000   Enter the debtor’s assets before bankruptcy, in current (inflation adjusted) dollars.
yes   Select yes if the court approves a DIP loan, no if it does not.
 Output
75 %  Lower bound of 95% confidence interval.
86 %  Probability the debtor company will survive bankruptcy.
96 %  Upper bound of 95% confidence interval.

The variables for this model were selected based on regression model (1) in Table 4 of Lynn M. LoPucki & Joseph W. Doherty, Bankruptcy Survival (July 28, 2014). Data used in the calculations are updated monthly.
* Earnings Before Interest and Taxes

The BRD has been supported by grants from these organizations:

National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges

Turnaround Management Association

American Bankruptcy Institute

In funding the Success Modeling Project, these organizations do not endorse or express any opinion about the approach used by the project, or any conclusions, opinions, or report of any research results expressed in or disseminated by the project.

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